2010 International Energy Outlook: Transportation Sector Energy Consumption!

Link: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/transportation.html


Notes:
"Almost 20 percent of the world's total delivered energy is used in the transportation sector, where liquid fuels are the dominant source. Transportation alone accounts for more than 50 percent of world consumption of liquid fuels, and its share increases over the projection period...From 2007 to 2035, growth in transportation energy use accounts for 87 percent of the total increase in world liquids consumption."

Historic high oil prices - 2008

• Non-OECD --> continued increase in transportation energy use (subsidies in oil-rich countries)
• OECD --> decrease from 2008-2009; increase projected for mid-2010; return to 2007 levels after 2020 (slow econ recovery & fuel conservation policies

"Transportation infrastructure and driving patterns in OECD countries are generally well established. Roads and highways connect most population centers. Motorization levels (vehicles per 1,000 people), which already are high (for example, there were 765 vehicles per thousand people in the United States in 2009), are likely to reach saturation by 2035. In addition, as OECD economies have become more service-oriented, the link between income and the transportation of goods has weakened."
"In France, for example, the sales tax levied on motor gasoline accounts for 70 percent of the cost of a gallon of fuel, so that French drivers pay about 120 percent more for their fuel than do U.S. consumers."

ALT TRANSPORT!!! : "In June 2005, Mexico City's Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Metrobus, began operating along a 12-mile length of the Avenida de los Insurgentes—often cited as the longest urban avenue in the world [4]. Today, Metrobus consists of two lines with a total length of nearly 30 miles, and there are plans to extend the system with two additional lines that will nearly double the current length of the system [5]. Metrobus is the longest operating BRT in Latin America, transporting an average of 265,000 passengers each day, and it has been credited with dramatically improving the city's air quality [6]. Its success demonstrates how important mass transit may be in shaping transportation consumption trends, particularly in fast-growing urban areas with underdeveloped transportation infrastructures."

Conclusion: Developing/emerging economies like India, China, Brazil, etc. have the most potential for alternative transportations to become primary modes, whereas USA's established infrastructure for private vehicles hinders progressive development of alternative transport.
Personal concern: Even in NYC, the recent rapid growth of bike lanes has faced much limitation and opposition from those who already own and operate private cars; also, the continued price and inconvenience increases in the MTA subway/bus system are turning many away from dependence on mass transportation.